Backtest performance
Each completed game is predicted before its result updates the team ratings. The current configuration is selected by a simple walk-forward grid search on recent completed games.
Scored 3,468 games from 3/18/2025 to 6/9/2026.
Brier
0.245
Accuracy
55.6%
Log loss
0.683
Home wins
53.8%
Out-of-sample backtest
Walk-forward result over 3,468 scored games. Lower Brier is better.
- Model Brier
- 0.2448
- Baseline Brier
- 0.2486
- Accuracy
- 55.6%
- Skill vs baseline
- 1.5%
Baseline = constant home-win base rate. Generated 6/9/2026.
Calibration by probability bucket
Bucket
Avg pred
Observed
Games
30–40%
36.5%
33.1%
127
40–50%
46.2%
48.9%
883
50–60%
54.8%
54.6%
1796
60–70%
63.2%
60.8%
613
70–80%
72.1%
79.6%
49
Model configuration
- K-factor
- 12
- Home-field Elo
- 35
- Temperature
- 1.4
- Season carryover
- 0.85