MLB win probability forecast
Real MLB StatsAPI schedules/results scored with a chronological Elo model. Probabilities are shown only when upcoming fixtures are present in the ingested schedule.
Source
MLB StatsAPI
Completed games
13366
Backtest log loss
0.6826
Brier
0.2448
Upcoming games
Apr 2, 2021 · Fenway Park
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
53.6%
home win
Apr 2, 2021 · Nationals Park
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
53.6%
home win
Apr 4, 2021 · Nationals Park
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
53.6%
home win
Apr 5, 2021 · Nationals Park
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
53.6%
home win
Apr 6, 2021 · Nationals Park
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
55.2%
home win
Apr 11, 2021 · Guaranteed Rate Field
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
54.1%
home win
Apr 12, 2021 · TD Ballpark
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays
48.3%
home win
Apr 13, 2021 · Target Field
Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
52.4%
home win
Apr 13, 2021 · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
52.5%
home win
Apr 13, 2021 · Citi Field
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
52.1%
home win
Apr 15, 2021 · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
52.3%
home win
Apr 16, 2021 · Citi Field
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
55.5%
home win
Top Elo ratings
| Team | Elo | Record | Last game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 1790 | 582-347 | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Atlanta Braves | 1790 | 517-386 | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1786 | 509-383 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1761 | 508-407 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| New York Yankees | 1760 | 514-392 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1730 | 474-425 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Seattle Mariners | 1730 | 487-408 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1719 | 481-400 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1716 | 451-427 | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1715 | 483-417 | Jun 9, 2026 |